2009 DIAMONDBACKS SEASON PREVIEW - PART IV
* LOOKING FORWARD - Having once been a team of veterans drawn from other clubs, Arizona enters 2009 with a roster whose players are predominantly young and of local origin. For most of these players, the coming season will be their third together as a group. The experience of developing as a team is rare in modern baseball, where free agency and trades shuffle almost every organization's roster annually.
Indeed, the Diamondbacks have not been immune to turnover on their pitching staff or in the field. Several key players are gone from the 2008 edition. Unable to work out a new pact with the club, Randy Johnson has taken his quest for 300 wins to San Francisco. Orlando Hudson has joined another division rival, signing on to play second base with the Dodgers. A third NL West team, the Padres, have made David Eckstein their starting second baseman. The Nationals reached a two-year agreement with Adam Dunn, who will play first base in Washington. Ex-closer Brandon Lyon joined the Tigers bullpen. And Juan Cruz signed a free agent deal with the Royals.
Replacing the former Snakes are No. 4 starter Jon Garland and second baseman Felipe Lopez. Non-roster invitee Ryan Roberts made the Opening Day club based on his ability to field several positions and a .283 / .394 / .483 line in the Cactus League. Arizona brought in two new lefties Tom Gordon and Scott Schoeneweis to fill the pen, although the former southpaw will start the year on the disabled list. If there is to be a replacement for Dunn, it will come from within the organization, as no impact power hitters were brought in to take his place.
On the whole, the newcomers look less formidable than the players recently departed. If the pieces added and subtracted cannot provide a net gain, Arizona will once again look to its core of young players to take a collective step forward. That's a plausible scenario for a team likely to feature everyday players ranging in age from 21 to 28. But as the 2008 results evidence, developing players may regress before they enter their primes.
For the Snakes to reclaim the NL West crown from the Dodgers, there are three key questions that must be answered in the affirmative.
* QUESTION NO. 1: WILL THE OFFENSE GROW UP? - Strikeouts and an attendant failure to convert RBI opportunities were huge problems for the Diamondbacks in 2008. Players like Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton seemed prone to swing for the fences far too often, costing Arizona critical runs. Another year of experience should help the hitters to temper their all-or-nothing tendencies. The talent is there for an offensive explosion, but only if the Diamondbacks can demonstrate a more mature approach at the plate. It may not be necessary for the entire team to make a huge leap in 2009; rather, the club needs one or two players to break out like Stephen Drew did last season in order to take the pressure off the rest of the line-up.
* QUESTION NO. 2: IS THE BULLPEN DEEP ENOUGH? - Arizona boasts a starting rotation that rivals any in baseball. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are arguably the best tandem in the game. Doug Davis has proven a reliable and effective No. 3. Jon Garland is unspectacular, but can handle a 200 IP workload and should benefit from a move to the National League. And Max Scherzer promises to be the rare dominant No. 5. The starters better be good, because the bullpen lost major components in Lyon and Cruz. Closer Chad Qualls has been consistent, but set-up men Tony Pena and Jon Rauch inspired little confidence with their performances in 2008. Among the reinforcements, Gordon must overcome health concerns and Schoeneweis (lifetime .594 OPS v. LHB, .835 OPS v. RHB) is effective only against lefty batters. Holding leads in the late innings will be vital to the Diamondbacks 2009 season.
* QUESTION NO. 3: CAN THE DEFENSE KEEP RUNS OFF THE BOARD? - In the field, the Snakes are spotty, featuring both top talents and major liabilities. Behind the plate, Chris Snyder is among the best defensive catchers in baseball. The outfield defense is strong overall, with Young owning excellent range in center. Conor Jackson was a liability at 1B, but has proven to be an asset in LF. Although Upton makes his share of mistakes, he has blazing speed and a rocket arm to become a plus defender once his conversion to RF is complete. Eric Byrnes can cover all three outfield positions capably. The problems are in the infield, where Lopez is a downgrade from Hudson at the keystone and Reynolds is erratic at 3B. Neither Drew at SS nor Chad Tracy at 1B are good enough to compensate for the deficiencies of their fellow infielders. For a club whose best pitcher specializes in inducing grounders, defensive misadventures could be costly.
To focus on areas of weakness is not to discount the Diamondbacks' strengths. Even with these question marks, Arizona looks to have better balance than the rest of the division. Los Angeles has re-signed Manny Ramirez and added Hudson, but failed to replace starters Derek Lowe or Brad Penny. The Giants' rotation, which features three former Cy Young winners, far out-classes their talent on offense. Colorado's build is similar to Arizona's, albeit without comparable strength at the front of the rotation. And the Padres, riddled with holes, seem destined to be the doormat of the NL West.
If the Snakes can find the answers to their open questions, another division title and a return to the post-season are theirs for the taking.
2009 DIAMONDBACKS SEASON PREVIEW: PART I - PART II - PART III - PART IV
1 responses to this Post, with 1 unique participants
The Bullpen
The pen is my biggest worry, but if the arms that were held over from last year improve with more experience under their belts, then things may turn out well. Tom Gordon should provide more a nice veteran presence for Melvin to use if the younger guys get shaky.