Farm Bureau: April 2, 2009
* DEXTER FOWLER - The Colorado Rockies, the last hold-outs with the Diamondbacks in the Old Pueblo, got a big spring from one of their brightest prospects: Dexter Fowler. At 23 years old, with a charismatic smile and a rangy 6'4", 173 lbs build, the Rockies' center fielder is a player who compares favorably to Arizona's own Chris B. Young.
The greatest likenesses are in the field, where each uses speed and instincts to play premium defense. Like Young, Fowler glides to the ball with grace, so he is well suited to patrol the spacious middle garden at Coors Field. Both can throw powerfully and accurately, although Fowler's arm is rated higher by scouts. Each saw his ML debut as a 22-year old after posting large numbers at his final minor league stop; Young made the leap from AAA Tucson in 2006 and Fowler was called up last season from AA Tulsa.
| NAME | AGE | TM | LVL | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | BB% | K% | BB/K |
| Young | 22 | TUC | AAA | 402 | 78 | 111 | 32 | 4 | 21 | 78 | 17 | 52 | 71 | .276 | .363 | .532 | .256 | 11.5% | 17.7% | 0.73 |
| Fowler | 22 | TUL | AA | 421 | 92 | 141 | 31 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 20 | 65 | 89 | .335 | .373 | .462 | .181 | 13.4% | 21.1% | 0.73 |
Those stats underscore some notable differences between the two NL West peers. The biggest distinction is in the power department. At the same age, Young hit more than twice as many HR, slugged 70 points higher, and had a 75-point advantage in isolated power. That pop had been on display for some time, as CBY totaled 20+ bombs in each of his previous two minor league seasons. While Fowler drew walks and struck out at higher rates than Young in the comparison years, the players' BB/K ratios were identical.
The biggest plus we see in Fowler's 2008 numbers is an apparent propensity to make hard contact. His .335 BA was the key ingredient in his .373 OBP and .462 SLG. It's doubtful that he can maintain quite such a gaudy rate going forward, as his .409 BABIP at AA looks unsustainable. However, Fowler may be a player uniquely capable to post a high BABIP (and with it, to bat for a high average), having demonstrated the knack as he rose through the Rockies' system. At Low-A Asheville in 2006, Fowler hit .296 / .373 / .462 with a .352 BABIP. He managed .273 / .397 / .367 with a .363 BABIP at A+ Modesto in 2007, his California League numbers curbed by injuries that held him to just 245 AB. Indeed, while batted-ball data for his minor league career is incomplete, scouting reports suggest Fowler has come to excel at driving the ball, which would account for his high BABIP. If he can consistently hit line-drives into the gaps, his speed and the dimensions of Coors Field should make Fowler a candidate to produce lots of doubles and triples.
As with any such comparison, a look at Young and Fowler together is more meaningful if put into some context. Just as Arizona and Colorado have offense-boosting ML parks, both Tucson and Tulsa are favorable hitting environments. That Young was a level higher at the same age speaks in his favor, while Fowler hit for less power against younger competition. All that said, Fowler's age-22 season was also quite impressive. Translated by Baseball Prospectus to adjust for differences in park and league effects, the numbers suggest a pretty close comparison.
| NAME | AGE | TM | LVL | EqAVG | EqOBP | EqSLG | EqA |
| Young | 22 | TUC | AAA | .237 | .318 | .466 | .268 |
| Fowler | 22 | TUL | AA | .275 | .360 | .439 | .277 |
Fowler didn't knock anyone's socks off in his September 2008 call-up, batting .154 / .185 / .154 in 26 AB with Colorado. But a sample size that small can't tell us much. More important in the Rockies' eyes have been Fowler's breakout performance at AA and his follow-up this spring. He leads the club with 70 AB heading into today's Cactus League finale, and while he has yet to homer, Fowler has hit an impressive .314 / .359 / .471 with 13 R, 22 H, 7 2B, 2 3B, 5 RBI and 6 SB against 3 CS. While his 6 BB versus 17 K suggests that some AAA experience might be advantageous, Colorado has elected to keep Fowler on the 25-man roster.
(Perusing the numbers, we took note that former Diamondbacks farmhand Carlos Gonzalez has hit .171 / .261 / .366 in 41 AB in the Cactus League. He joined the Rockies in the off-season deal that sent Matt Holliday to Oakland, where Gonzalez had originally been sent by Arizona in its package to acquire Dan Haren. His star has dimmed since his Arizona days and CarGo looks likely to spend time at AAA with a third organization and for the third year in a row.)
It remains to be seen whether Fowler will be an everyday player in his first full campaign, but it is unlikely that Colorado would roster a prospect of his quality unless they had plans to give him regular at-bats. Fowler will need them if he's to develop into the player the club believes he can be. In the near term, Fowler is a poor bet to approach the 32 HR that Young hit as a 23-year old rookie with Arizona, but Rockies management and scouts in general believe he has the swing to become a long-ball threat. Already blessed with speed, defensive acumen, a strong throwing arm and the ability to hit for average, Fowler needs only to hit the ball out of the park with regularity to earn his status as a five-tool player.
The Diamondbacks will host the Rockies at Chase Field in the season opener on April 6. With Young and Fowler likely to take turns in CF and at the plate, Arizona fans should be in for a treat on Opening Day.
* MADISON BUMGARNER - The prize of a much improved San Francisco Giants farm system is lefty pitcher Madison Bumgarner. After a dominating 2008 season (141.2 IP, 111 H, 21 BB, 164 K, 1.46 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) for Augusta in the Low-A South Atlantic League, he will likely open 2009 at A+ San Jose. Before packing his bags, Bumgarner got a chance to show his stuff in the final game of this year's Cactus League. In a start against the Dodgers yesterday, Bumgarner went 3 IP without surrendering a run or a walk. He allowed just one hit -- a double by veteran NRI Juan Castro -- and recorded 4 K, including a strikeout of mighty Manny Ramirez on three pitches. That's the type of performance that would boost the confidence of any young pitcher.
* DRAFT CLASS IN SESSION - Bumgarner was the first player selected by the Giants in the 2007 draft, but San Francisco had two more first-rounders (Tim Alderson and Wendell Fairley) plus another three compensation picks (Nick Noonan, Jackson Williams and Charlie Culberson) in that class. The Giants deployed their multiple high draft choices in 2007 to great effect, adding depth and quality to a farm system that at the time boasted future NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, teenage slugger Angel Villalona, and not much else. Bumgarner and Alderson have performed especially well in the low minors. While his statistics show room for improvement, Noonan is also very well regarded by scouts and is pegged for a breakout season in the hitterish California League. As the Diamondbacks contemplate how they will use their own several selections in the 2009 draft, they would be well advised to study their division rival's efforts two years ago.
1 responses to this Post, with 1 unique participants
Carlos Gonzalez in AAA
That is making the Haren deal look even better, is it not? We will have to see how that plays out though, there is no doubt Carlos Gonzalez has potential to play everyday in the Bigs.