Farm Bureau: Upton, Wieters, Strasburg and Hype

Written by PHXMLB, on March 29th, 2009 at 5:13am

Matt Wieters, b. 05.21.86.

 

Justin Upton, b. 08.25.87.

 

Stephen Strasburg, b. 07.20.88.

 

The dates of birth for these three players are provided to offer some context for evaluation of the HYPE! that each has engendered.  At the risk of selling short their talents, which are in each case prodigious, each of these players is, has been, or is soon to be the "Flavor of the Month" among those who follow baseball futures.

 

This month's flavor is most certainly Wieters, since David Price had his coming out party late last season.  The Orioles assigned Wieters to AAA this week for no good reason except that, by demoting him, Baltimore is likely to keep the young backstop under its control for an extra year. No one seriously believes that crusty Gregg Zaun is a better option than Wieters to serve as the O's No. 1 catcher. Almost everyone who expresses an opinion on the subject unabashedly lauds Wieters as a player ready to make a huge impact, both at the plate and behind it. During an interview last week on XM's MLB Home Plate, one of the writers (Kevin Goldstein?) over at Baseball Prospectus poked fun at the rush to credit Wieters with super-powers by posing the question: "If Matt Wieters has $5 and you have $5, is it true that Matt Wieters is richer than you?"

 

Wieters is getting as much hype as I can remember anyone getting since ... well, at least since Justin Upton. Frankly, Wieters is getting even more love than Upton got. Scouts and numbers-centric types alike are swooning for Wieters. He was Baseball America's 2008 Player of the Year and graces the cover of the 2009 Prospect Handbook.  (Upton, while highly regarded, never received either honor.) Wieters sent the PECOTA system into such a tizzy that it spit out a projection for what BP's Steve Goldman describes as a "MVP-caliber, Hall-of-Fame worthy" season as a rookie.

 

Now, Wieters was absolutely dominant against A+ and AA opponents last season, so the attention he's getting is justified by his performance. But take a look at what each of Upton and Wieters did at the AA level.

 

PLAYER	AGE	LEAGUE	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	SB	ISO	BB%	K%
Upton	19	SOU	259	48	80	17	4	13	53	37	51	.309	.399	.556	10	.247	12.5%	19.7%
Wieters	22	EAS	208	41	76	14	2	12	51	38	29	.365	.460	.625	1	.260	15.4%	13.9%

 

Double-A has historically been the level where rising prospects are separated into the elite and the less-than-elite. While both players' lines were outstanding, the numbers Wieters put up in fewer at-bats are as good as or better than Upton's in nearly every category. In light of those digits, one might argue that Wieters deserves the greater accolades. The case for Upton is based on the figures in the second column: Age.

Drafted out of high school in 2005, Upton did not play as a professional until 2006. He spent his first minor league season as an 18-year old in the chilly and offense-inhibiting Midwest League, drawing criticism for his failure to dominate (.757 OPS) and for what some observers considered a poor attitude. Opinions of both his bat and his make-up improved dramatically when he blasted the California League for .341 / .433 / .540 in 126 AB to open the 2007 season. Upton then advanced to AA Mobile, where he recorded the stats listed in the table above while he was the youngest player in the Southern League.

An All-American at Georgia Tech, Wieters didn't have an extended encounter with professional pitching until he was a 22-year old with three years of college ball under his belt. (Weiters got his toes wet with 31 games of Hawaii Winter Baseball in 2007, hitting .283 / .364 / .415 in 106 AB, but many sources, including FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, omit those numbers from his profile.) In contrast to Upton, who had 564 AB in the low minors before he made his AA debut, Wieters skipped right past Low-A and saw just 229 AB with the A+ Frederick Keys before promotion to Baltimore's affiliate at Bowie. Wieters played the balance of the 2008 season with the BaySox, leading the Eastern League with a 1.085 OPS. His age in no way diminishes the feat, as 22 is slightly younger than the average age of a prospect at AA. It remains, however, that Wieters achieved his distinction against players of similar vintage.

My point is not that Wieters is other than a superb prospect; obviously that is true, more so in light of his switch-hitting profile and his prowess as a catcher. I just mean to say that when one compares two franchise-making talents, one ought to expect the 22-year old to out-perform the 19-year old at the same level. Since his age-22 season will not come until next year, I cannot help but wonder what the 2010 edition of Justin Upton would do against AA pitchers. (For the record, I don't think anyone will ever find out.) As a mere 19-year old in 2007, Upton beat up on the Southern League. Send him back to the same level at the same age Wieters was last year and I suspect Upton would blaze a path through Dixie on par with Sherman's March.

Upton and Wieters are not alone atop this page. The third name on the list -- Strasburg -- belongs to a 20-year old right-hander and college junior at San Diego State. He is regarded as the top talent in the upcoming June draft and a no-brainer for Washington with the No. 1 overall pick, provided that the challenge of negotiating with Strasburg's "advisor" (read: "agent") Scott Boras does not scare away the club. His stuff is so nasty and he employs it with such command that some have suggested Strasburg could skip the minor leagues altogether and join the Nationals as soon as he is signed. The suggestion sounds less implausible once you've seen him strike out 23 UNLV batters in a 2008 start .

The HYPE! was ratcheted up another notch with a five-page profile by Lee Jenkins in the latest issue of Sports Illustrated, which alerted the broader sporting public to his skill set: "Strasburg has two fastballs, a riding four-seamer that has been clocked at 102 and a sinking two-seamer that tops out only in the mid-90s. That sort of heat can make good hitters look slow; Strasburg's sweeping slider can make them look silly."  It has been noted elsewhere that Strasburg also has a plus change-up, although he seldom has need for it since college hitters are so thoroughly outclassed by the rest of his repertoire.  The SI article cites Strasburg's career numbers as 168.2 IP with 254 K against 38 BB.  That would be ... good.

I mention Strasburg because he's getting rated above Wieters in certain circles. That's silly for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is the high attrition rate for pitching prospects compared to hitters. But the Strasburg love further demonstrates the inverse relationship between experience against top-tier competition and perceived value. The less experience an extremely gifted player has against the very best possible opponents, the more likely he is to shine.

I'll confess: I have as much fun as anyone speculating about prospects and dreaming on high-ceiling talent. I loves me some HYPE! ... just ask anyone who's played in a fantasy league with me. But values can get skewed when one considers the numbers without adjusting for age or level of competition. It's a mistake to assume that players who are unblemished by competition at the highest level are "better" than comparable talents whose statistics reflect a period of adjustment.

There should be no doubt that Matt Wieters is an elite talent and a great bet to become a star at the ML level. Stephen Strasburg, too, seems to have an arsenal that will give big league hitters nightmares as surely as it has overmatched collegians. Chance are good, however, that neither would seem quite so pristine had he been asked to perform in the show at his present age or younger.

Keep that in mind the next time you hear someone label Justin Upton's performance to date as a disappointment. The story of Carlos Quentin will have to wait for another day, but his is a cautionary tale of the perils of writing off a promising young player who struggles for a time to adjust.

Looking for the next big thing is a blast. Just don't be in such a hurry to dismiss the last big thing. He might end up bigger than you imagine.

Tags: Baltimore Orioles, California League, Carlos Quentin, David Price, Eastern League, Gregg Zaun, Hawaii Winter Baseball, Justin Upton, Matt Wieters, Midwest League, Mobile BayBears, Prospects, Scott Boras, South Bend Silver Hawks, Southern League, Stephen Strasburg, Visalia Oaks, Washington Nationals

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